In the wake of Tuesday’s “blue tsunami,” media attention has focused on the places where Democrats won most unexpectedly — Texas, Kansas and South Carolina — with Mississippi and Alaska still to be determined. Indeed, the Democrats’ victory on Tuesday was so broad and so complete that we could spend time on any number of political battlegrounds where Republicans were routed.
But one state and one politician are not getting nearly enough attention: Pennsylvania and its governor, Josh Shapiro.
On Tuesday, in arguably the most important swing state in the country, Shapiro didn’t just coast to re-election, he led Democrats to one of the most impressive political victories in the country.
In the gubernatorial race, Shapiro won more than 60% of the vote, defeating his opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, by 22 percentage points.
By comparison, no other swing state Democratic gubernatorial candidate came within 9 points of Shapiro’s margin of victory. Shapiro even scored a bigger win than Democratic gubernatorial candidates in solid blue states like New York and Connecticut — and he did it in a state that just two years ago voted for President Donald Trump and saw a Republican senator knock off an incumbent Democrat.
The downballot story in Pennsylvania is even more impressive. Democrats flipped four House seats, two by double digits. For years, moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick seemed to dodge raindrops by consistently winning re-election in a swing district. On Tuesday, he lost by roughly 5 points.
Even more important for Pennsylvania residents, Democrats flipped the state Senate, which will give the party a governing trifecta for the first time in 34 years.
Flush with victory, Shapiro wasted no time on Wednesday laying out his policy agenda. He announced on X that his first priority for the new Democratic-controlled legislature is raising the minimum wage to $15. He also called for funding mass transit and building more housing, codifying abortion rights, and making it easier for survivors to confront their abusers in court.
While this is a reasonable policy agenda for any Democratic governor, it also checks a lot of Democratic interest group boxes for a politician with presidential aspirations.
Make no mistake, Shapiro is almost certainly running for president, and when we dig into the numbers to see how he won, the case for Shapiro’s presidential bid is clear.
According to NBC News’ exit polls, at a time when Democrats are struggling with male voters, Shapiro won them by a whopping 14 points — and even had a 5-point advantage with white men. Among non-college-educated white men, perhaps the GOP’s last true bastion of political support, Shapiro won 44%. He captured 75% of the under-30 vote, almost 60% of union members, 45% of rural voters and even 28% of evangelicals. Overall, he won nearly 1 in 5 Republican voters and 17% of self-identified conservatives.
But bring up Shapiro’s name to Democrats and one issue comes up over and over again — he’s Jewish, and Democrats are not prepared to nominate a Jewish candidate for president.
That Shapiro’s religious background is even an issue speaks to how pervasive antisemitism has become in American politics.
But it also ignores the extent to which Jews already play an outsize role in Democratic politics. Five Jewish Democrats won gubernatorial elections on Tuesday — bringing the total number of Jewish governors to seven, or just under 25% of all Democratic state executives. There are already nine Jewish Democratic senators (as well as independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats), or just under 20% of the party’s Senate caucus. That’s enough for a minyan.
For all the arguments that Shapiro’s religious and national affiliation is an impediment for Democratic voters, Tuesday’s results should prove they have no trouble electing Jews to higher office.
Indeed, for all the largely online debates over support for Israel and the anger of activist Democrats toward that country, it wasn’t reflected in Tuesday’s election results.
In 2026, Democratic voters consistently nominated Jewish and non-Jewish candidates who, like Shapiro, are publicly supportive of Israel though also critical of its government. Among Democratic Senate candidates who faced competitive primaries, including Sen. Ed Markey in Massachusetts, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas and Juliana Stratton in Illinois, several were critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s actions in Gaza, but none went so far as to falsely accuse Israel of genocide. Their statements broadly align with Shapiro’s.
Of course, presidential candidates receive far more scrutiny and anger from the Democratic Party’s left wing, and anti-Israel sentiment has played a far more pervasive role in Democratic politics than ever before. But if the past statements of Democratic candidates who prevailed on Tuesday are any indication, opposition to Israel may not hold much currency with Democratic voters.
And if the next Israeli government is formed by someone other than Netanyahu (which looks increasingly likely), it’s quite possible that Israel as an issue in Democratic politics will begin to fade in importance.
However, none of this should matter all that much for Democrats intent on winning back the White House in 2028. If Tuesday’s results showed us anything, it is that what matters to voters is not what’s happening in the Middle East, but what’s happening in their own communities.
And if Democrats are looking for a candidate who has shown they can win in a swing state and has an appeal that goes beyond partisan and tribal loyalty, Shapiro should be front and center.
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