On the eve of the election, this is what the Senate battleground polling tells us

Two years after losing control of the Senate, Democrats enter Election Day ahead in enough races to win it back — if the polls are right.

After the party’s disastrous performance in 2024, the upper chamber had largely felt out of reach. Democrats bled four seats in the Senate that year, and they lost the White House while also falling short of winning the House by three seats. To take the Senate on Tuesday, Democrats have to flip some of the seats in Texas, Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa or Ohio. All of those states, except for North Carolina, voted for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.

Even with a difficult map, polls suggest Democrats are in a good place to flip the Senate, according to FiftyPlusOne, MS NOW’s polling data partner. In Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Michigan — seats the party needs to hold to control the chamber — Democrats are ahead in the polling averages by 6 to 10 points, all outside the margin of error, according to FiftyPlusOne.

In toss-ups Maine, Texas, Kansas and Ohio, FiftyPlusOne puts Democrats up by 5, 4, 4 and 3 points, respectively. They, too, sit out of the margin of error.

In Alaska, where former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, FiftyPlusOne puts Peltola up by 2 points, although it is within the margin of error.

Iowa and South Carolina’s races are even. Only in Florida and Nebraska does FiftyPlusOne put Republicans ahead. Florida’s polling average is outside the margin of error, while Nebraska’s is within it.

Even with attempts to correct previous polling issues, there are still fears that polling overestimates Democratic turnout, in part because Democrats are overall more likely to respond to surveys than Republicans are. In 2020, every poll leading up to Election Day put the Democrat challenging Maine Sen. Susan Collins ahead. On Election Day, Collins won re-election by more than 8 points.

Most polling misreads are not as extreme as that example. In 2022, polls predicted a red wave to sweep Washington as a low approval rating and economic struggles battered then-President Joe Biden. (Sound familiar?) In the end, Democrats held the Senate while they lost their slim majority in the House.

On the ground, Democrats are feeling energized, but they are not relying on polls alone to carry them across the finish line.

“I’m running like I’m 10 points down,” said Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday night in an exclusive interview with MS NOW. He said he does not take polls “very seriously” after they projected a commanding win over his primary challenger, Haley Stevens. In the Michigan primary, El-Sayed squeaked through to victory by less than 1 percentage point.

“There are positive signs for Democratic enthusiasm and energy across the board, but competing in states that Donald Trump won by double digits means tight races until the very end,” said Lauren French, communications director for the Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Early vote turnout data looks good for Democrats seeking to mobilize voters in the Senate’s battleground states. In Texas, turnout is up more than 35% compared with the same point in 2022, while Hispanic voter turnout has surged 81% compared with that year, according to data collected by TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm.

In Ohio, 28% more people have cast ballots compared with this point in 2022. In Alaska, turnout is up 30%. In Iowa, it is up 29%.

Nationally, more than 8.5 million voters, or 20% more, have cast their ballots compared to this time in 2022, per TargetSmart. That is because voters are “fired up” to get to the polls and reject the Republican party, said Tommy Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

But Republicans are not turned off by their trailing polling averages. “Everything comes down to turnout,” said Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters on ABC News Monday morning, adding that enthusiasm on the ground for the GOP is high and he believes the party will make history come Tuesday night.

After all, “the only poll that matters is Election Day,” he said.

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