In politics, as in much of life, it’s better to have more money than less. Over the summer, the Republican National Committee had over eight times more money on hand than the Democratic National Committee, and heading into the November midterm elections, Republicans’ major monetary advantage over Democrats remains.
But Democrats benefit from a strong majority of likely voters’ disapproval of President Donald Trump’s performance in office, and more than one poll shows Democrats with a double-digit lead on a generic congressional ballot. The GOP’s mountain of cash may not be enough to raise its candidates out of the massive hole they’re in because of Trump and his party’s subservience to him.
Rising prices resulting from Trump’s trade war and the war with Iran, alongside other affordability concerns, have the president’s approval rating tanking. Trump has asked that Americans to “pretend I’m on the ballot,” but Republicans who actually are on the ballot are worried. Those higher costs, frustration with the war and lack of Republican leadership could lead to enthusiastic Democrats swarming their polling places and demoralized conservatives staying home. As my colleague Zeeshan Aleem recently noted, Republicans are even beginning to worry that the rural communities that have previously buoyed the GOP’s vote count won’t turn out strong.
The clear hope among Republican politicos is that money can make up for the enthusiasm gap — and money is the one thing they’ve got plenty of.
The clear hope among Republican politicos is that money can make up for the enthusiasm gap — and money is the one thing they’ve got plenty of. The RNC had $130 million cash on hand as of the end of July, the most recent Federal Election Commission disclosure period, compared to the DNC’s relatively paltry $16 million (without including the millions in debts it owes). SuperPACs and other major outside spending also tilts in favor of the GOP. Also, after complaints from Republicans that he seemed to be keeping all his cash for himself, Trump finally said this month that his PAC, MAGA Inc., would begin spending the $400 million war chest to help Republican candidates.
Much of Republicans’ financial advantage has been spent on major advertising blitzes, according to media tracking firm AdImpact, with the party and its allies planning on spending roughly $221 million more on advertising than their Democratic counterparts between this week and Election Day. But a surprisingly large chunk of the GOP’s money is going toward races in usually red states like Kansas, Texas and North Carolina.
The extra money to buy ads notwithstanding, there is little in the record for congressional Republicans to promote. H.R.1, widely known as the “one big, beautiful bill, the biggest piece of legislation of Trump’s second term, as The New York Times rightly noted, is a mixed bag at best for many voters. While many of the harshest cuts to the social safety net used to pay for its tax cuts were punted until next year or later, hundreds of thousands of Americans have already seen their benefits slashed in a bad economic environment — and know exactly which party to blame.
When they don’t have a positive message, campaigns often blanket media markets with negative messaging, hoping to tear down their opponent and push their own voters to the polls more out of fear than hope. Major Republican bogeymen for this campaign season have included the twin specters of communism and socialism, or, as a talking point Vice President JD Vance and numerous others have repeated goes: “common sense versus crazy.”
Those attacks don’t seem to be landing. Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote Monday that “at this point, attack ads against Democrats were not yet ‘moving the needle’ in the races they were tracking.” She added that “Democratic candidates, for the most part, appear to be withstanding the deluge of advertising so far.”
Case in point: Republicans intended Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Michigan, to be their poster child for the GOP’s fearmongering over socialism (with a touch of Islamophobia for good measure). According to the most recent New York Times polling, El-Sayed is leading by roughly five points against former Rep. Mike Rogers for the open seat. Not only is this edge coming from “the popularity of his economic message and his vocal support for single-payer health care,” the newspaper reported, but its poll shows El-Sayed winning 8% of voters who voted for Trump in the 2024 election.
While the GOP’s life raft of cash might save some candidates, there’s not enough room for everyone to climb aboard
Those numbers have some Republicans in tough races scrambling to put a little distance between themselves and the White House. It may be too little, too late, though, given the country’s mood. The latest generic congressional ballot average from Nate Silver has Democrats up by 8.1 points. A survey released from Emerson College Thursday had Democratic candidates viewed more favorable among respondents by 11 points, while a survey from NPR/PBS News/Marist from Wednesday showed a 12-point lead. To compare to past midterm cycles, at this point in 2006, Gallup had Democrats up by 12 before reclaiming the House; a Politico poll in September 2018 likewise had Democrats up by 14 ahead of winning a House majority.
Democrats can’t say that it’s entirely smooth sailing at this point. The cash crunch doesn’t help support candidates attempting to win the swing races that will likely decide control of the House and Senate. Disarray at the DNC means fewer coordinated efforts to ensure what money there is being spent strategically. And while individual candidates are doing well, the overall Democratic brand isn’t particularly strong.
There are other potential breakers for a potential blue wave. Two years of midcycle redistricting may have created just enough solidly GOP seats to blunt a potential Democratic House majority. And though the odds have gotten worse for them, given their overall favorable map, there’s still a chance for the GOP to defend enough seats to keep control of the Senate.
But while the GOP’s life raft of cash might save some candidates, there’s not enough room for everyone to climb aboard, and the economy is such a weight that there’s likely no amount of money Republicans can spend to counteract the feeling voters have that they’re going under, too.
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