If recent public opinion polling is correct, the Republican Party is on the verge of an electoral bloodbath. While it’s typical for the incumbent party to struggle in midterm elections, the situation today for the GOP is far more perilous — and a big part of the reason is President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war against Iran.
More than 200 days since it began, it’s clear that the Iran war is a strategic disaster, and that view is widely shared by the American people. Support for the war routinely polls in the low-30s, but of greater concern for Republicans are the second and third order effects of the war.
Gas prices are up around 50% since the war began — and have spiked this month. Sticker shock at the pump has contributed to higher inflation, a more than 20% rise in airline ticket prices (because of higher jet fuel costs) and even a 1.25 percentage point jump in mortgage rates, because the Federal Reserve has been forced to keep interest rates higher.
In a new report I wrote this week for the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan foreign policy think tank in Washington, D.C., Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated the total cost of the war at $220 billion — that’s approximately $1,650 per average American household.
More than 200 days since it began, it’s clear that the Iran war is a strategic disaster, and that view is widely shared by the American people.
The Pentagon’s share of the Iran debacle is around $40 billion and the costs keep ticking up. To make matters worse, the United States has used so many bombs, missiles and interception that it has severely depleted its stockpile of munitions, according to a report from the Pentagon’s inspector general.
By August, reports say the U.S. military had used 80% of its THAAD interceptor inventory and around half of its Patriot interceptors. The U.S. Army has used “virtually all” of its Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles. These are long-range weapons expected to be relied on in any conflict with China.
It could take years to replenish U.S. stockpiles — and the diminished supply of munitions is already having significant consequences in the Far East and Europe. According to the Washington Post, key U.S. allies report delays in arms shipments and growing fears that the U.S. simply lacks the capabilities to uphold its alliance and treaty obligations if a conflict were to emerge.
While this aspect has received little attention, the Iran war has also been extraordinarily deadly. According to the Defense Department, 18 U.S. service members have been killed in combat (though some reporting suggests the number could be as high as 22 or 23) and more than 820 wounded. But those numbers tell only a small part of the story.
It’s difficult to get concrete numbers but, to date, the total death toll for the Iran war is estimated at between 8,000 and 10,000 people. Most of those killed have been Iranian civilians, but also thousands in Lebanon were killed after Hezbollah, in solidarity with Iran, started bombing targets in northern Israel, leading to a significant Israeli military response. Close to 50,000 have been injured in a host of countries across the region, including nearly 8,000 in Israel, from Iranian missile strikes.
Has all this death and destruction brought any positive benefit to U.S. national security interests? Hardly. In fact, the failure of the U.S. to achieve nearly any of its key objectives is remarkable.
When Trump announced his decision to go to war with Iran in late February, he outlined four key objectives — ending Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its missile industry, annihilating its navy and ending Iran’s support for terrorist proxies in the Middle East.
Following the initial wave of attacks that began in February and ended at the beginning of April, when the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, none of these key objectives had been achieved. Yes, the U.S. had done enormous damage to the Iranian navy, but that didn’t prevent Teheran from blocking maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf. Yes, Iran’s missile industry had been significantly degraded, but our report found it was far from destroyed and still maintains hundreds if not thousands of missiles that can be used to project military power across the region.
It’s small wonder that some congressional Republicans are starting to distance themselves from the war and urging Trump to end the conflict.
But what is most telling about how far the Iran war has gone off the rails is that all of America’s initial goals have been cast aside with reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic becoming the overarching goal of the war — a goal that is only necessary because of the initial decision to go to war, which led to Iran closing the strait.
Indeed, while administration officials continue to claim that the war is necessary to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, according to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, “none” of the post-April U.S. attacks have focused on Iran’s nuclear program. Rather, U.S. military operations are focused almost exclusively on preventing Iran from interfering with maritime traffic in the Gulf. Indeed, while bombing attacks are episodic, the U.S. continues to maintain a blockage on Iranian ships and ports.
In short, the U.S. has failed to achieve its key objectives; it is now focused on one that is a direct result of the ill-advised decision to go to war, and the costs of the conflict continue to rise and directly affect the wallets of nearly every American.
It’s small wonder that some congressional Republicans are starting to distance themselves from the war and urging Trump to end the conflict (though the party still refuses to back legislation that would direct Trump to end the war). But even if that were to happen — and there’s little indication that the White House is actively seeking an off-ramp to war — the impact will likely continue to be felt for weeks or months to come.
For Republicans — and Democrats hoping to replace them in Congress — a political reckoning is coming and the only question now is how bad will it be for the GOP. Trump’s war of choice, and the dire consequences it has brought for America and the world, could be the biggest factor in that defeat.
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