After the GOP’s bruising election losses last week, House Republicans are mapping out their path through the minority — and eventually, they hope, back to the majority.
On Tuesday, they’ll choose the person they want to lead them there.
Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Steve Scalise of Louisiana are squaring off to be the next House minority leader, a position that will be at the center of the party’s policy debates, political strategy and efforts to regain power in the 120th Congress.
At the moment, it looks like anybody’s race.
Jordan, the founding chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has deep ties to the party’s right flank. He’s a close ally of President Donald Trump, and he’s making the case that Republicans need to adopt an even more confrontational and conservative style in the minority.
In a letter announcing his candidacy, Jordan said Republicans can’t just “spotlight how radical this new Democrat party is.”
“Offense, not defense, wins elections,” Jordan continued.
Jordan is generally the favored candidate among hard-line conservatives, and his election would signal a shift in direction from the current GOP leadership team.
By comparison, Scalise is viewed as the more establishment candidate.
In a letter of his own announcing his candidacy, Scalise said Republicans need to “stand united as one team, be smart and strategic to secure conservative policy wins where we can, closely coordinate our defense against aggressive oversight and together develop a clear vision and agenda to earn back the majority in 2028.”
Although Jordan may have more support among the far-right factions of the GOP conference, both men tout that they are deeply conservative — and both men have resumes to support those claims. While Jordan was a fixture of the early Freedom Caucus, Scalise was the chairman of the Republican Study Committee — the conservative organization that pre-dated the Freedom Caucus — before he was elected to GOP leadership in 2014.
Ideological and strategic disagreements aside, Scalise has served in leadership for more than a decade. He’s the preferred choice of many traditional Republicans, and his election would serve as an endorsement of a more predictable approach to GOP leadership.
The choice will offer an early indication of how Republicans plan to respond to their election losses — what kind of opposition party they plan to become — and no GOP lawmaker seems to know how the race will go.
“It’s very close right now — I think that a few votes can decide it,” one House Republican told MS NOW, requesting anonymity to discuss the sensitive internal dynamics.
“Everybody’s so frustrated and we’ve lost so many members,” the lawmaker said.
Jordan and Scalise will make their case to the GOP conference Tuesday morning, and Republicans will vote in the afternoon by secret ballot. Just a simple majority is needed to clinch the position.
While the winner is uncertain, there is some precedent to the race.
Jordan and Scalise went head-to-head in 2023, after a small group of Republicans voted with Democrats to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. Scalise won the conference vote on the secret ballot, 113-99, and Jordan threw his support behind him. But when Scalise failed to secure enough support to become speaker, he dropped out, ultimately clearing the way for Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
This time around, however, the race is unfolding under very different circumstances.
The election is taking place exactly one week after Republicans suffered blistering defeats, losing their majority and dozens of additional seats. And while both men have different visions for how to address those losses, they’re both also highlighting how they’ve already helped the GOP.
Scalise raised more than $23 million for GOP candidates this cycle, and he visited upwards of 100 cities, a House GOP aide told MS NOW, also requesting anonymity to disclose the private data.
Jordan, meanwhile, traveled to 115 districts across 34 states to support GOP candidates this cycle and he raised more than $4.5 million for Republicans running, a source familiar with his efforts who was not authorized to speak on the record told MS NOW. The source noted that Jordan had fewer resources to raise money given he wasn’t in House GOP leadership.
Beyond those efforts, allies of Jordan and Scalise point to what they see as their respective candidates’ chief strengths.
For Scalise, it’s his institutional knowledge from more than a decade of GOP leadership.
“He’s got the experience, he’s got the network, he has, I believe, a better fundraising ability and I think he will have a better chance of unifying the conference,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla.
For Jordan, allies emphasize his relationship with the conservative base, his communication style — especially on television — and his combative approach to politics. The Ohio Republican is known for his bare-knuckle tactics, which those close to him say are well-suited to the party’s current position.
“Especially with the group that’s coming in to govern, I mean, against socialists, we’re gonna have to have somebody that fights,” said Rep. Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind., who served with Jordan in the Freedom Caucus when the group first formed.
“He’s got good fighting skills,” he said.
Jordan, allies say, would represent a sharper break with the party’s existing leadership.
After the midterm wipeout, some Republicans want new blood in their highest ranks — something Jordan, who has only ever been a committee chair, would represent better than Scalise, who has worked his way through the leadership hierarchy for years.
“He’s been leader for quite a while, and I just think that, you know, if I’m willing to tell the White House that they should, you know, get some new staff, I should probably make sure that we also support new leadership here,” Stutzman said.
While both candidates feel good about their chances, neither camp is taking anything for granted — especially in a head-to-head match between two political veterans.
“I don’t think you can ever count out Steve,” Stutzman said. “Steve knows how to run a really strong operation.”
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