Headed into the special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, Democrats were optimistic about keeping the seat once held by Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill. As the dust settled on the race, their confidence was well placed. MS NOW reported:

Progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia delivered a notable victory for the party’s left flank after securing the U.S. House seat vacated by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, D.

Democrats were strongly favored to keep the seat in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, but the race had exposed ideological divisions within the party and has become a test for Republican efforts to compete in a district that has trended blue in recent years.

The question was less about whether Mejia would prevail and more about her margin of victory. The answer was emphatic: With nearly all of the votes counted, the Democratic congresswoman-elect prevailed by roughly 20 points, an overperformance relative to Sherrill’s 15-point victory in her re-election bid two years ago and Kamala Harris’ 8-point victory in the same district in the 2024 race.

It’s the latest in a series of special elections over the past year and a half in which Democrats have consistently overperformed in races nationwide.

But as Mejia prepares to take office, the larger takeaway isn’t limited to the GOP’s electoral anxieties ahead of the midterm elections in the fall. More practically, the outcome in New Jersey poses a more short-term problem for Republicans on Capitol Hill, who were already struggling with their narrow margin in the House.

The member tallies in the lower chamber haven’t exactly been stable lately. When this week got underway, there were 217 House Republicans (in a House where 218 is generally the threshold for a majority), 214 House Democrats and one independent. On Tuesday, Republican Rep. Clay Fuller of Georgia took the oath of office, creating a 218-214-1 chamber.

Hours later, things got a little more complicated: Then-Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California resigned in disgrace, lowering the Democratic number to 213, which roughly coincided with then-Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas also resigning in disgrace, shrinking the House GOP conference back to 217.

Two days later, Mejia cruised to her landslide victory, and assuming she’s sworn in relatively quickly (though with House Speaker Mike Johnson, one never really knows), the result will be a 217-214-1 chamber.

For all intents and purposes, that’s barely a functional majority, especially with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky routinely voting against his party.

And let’s not forget that there was a contentious fight on the House floor on Thursday afternoon over a war powers resolution that fell one vote shy. Had the vote happened after Mejia’s swearing-in, the outcome might very well have gone the other way.

GOP leaders, in other words, were already dealing with all kinds of headaches. Voters in New Jersey’s 11th just made them worse.

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From MS Now.