On Nov. 5, 2024, I sat in the back of a ballroom at the Marriott Marquis in downtown Houston, covering Sen. Ted Cruz’s victory speech. Results from the majority-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley caused a political earthquake, as these ancestrally Democratic counties along the border with Mexico shifted hard right to Donald Trump.
Cruz, ever the sports fan, could not help but spike the football six years after he nearly lost to Beto O’Rourke.
“Tonight, we are witnessing incredible results, especially with Hispanics, across the state of Texas,” Cruz said.
Ever since Barack Obama’s presidency, Democrats had dreamed of a blue Texas; Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley were the linchpin in this strategy.
What a difference two years makes. The Democratic blue wave that swept over the country Tuesday would not have been as tall without the backlash from Latino voters against President Trump. Between his draconian immigration regime (crafted by Stephen Miller), his tariffs making daily goods more expensive and his Iran war driving up the price of gas, Hispanic voters had enough. Nowhere did that buoy Democrats more than in Texas, where Hispanics in the state moved 32 points to the left.
That swing didn’t just send James Talarico to the Senate and Gina Hinojosa to the governor’s mansion. It powered Democrats to win every top statewide office, flip the four state Supreme Court seats on the ballot this year and capture the Statehouse. And it decimated Texan and national Republicans’ plans to shore up the GOP majority in the House of Representatives by creating five Republican-leaning seats in Congress in heavily Hispanic parts of the state.
Ever since Barack Obama’s presidency, Democrats had dreamed of a blue Texas; Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley were the linchpin in this strategy. Many liberals believed Trump’s noxious rhetoric would be a Texas version of California’s Proposition 187. The 1994 passage of that referendum, which restricted undocumented immigrants from using state services, led Hispanics in California to reject that state’s GOP to such an extent that the party is nearly an afterthought today.
Instead, Trump grew his share of support among Hispanics each year, both nationwide and in Texas. In 2024 more Latinos than ever flocked to his populist economic message. According to exit polls, Trump won 46% of Latino voters nationally — and 55% in the Lone Star State.
“The results tonight, this decisive victory, should shake the Democrat establishment to its core,” Cruz said that year. “We are seeing tonight, generational change in South Texas.”
Beyond Texas, where most Latino voters are Mexican Americans, Hispanics of many other backgrounds revolted.
The rightward shift among Hispanics must have felt like a freebie for Republicans: They could call for mass deportations and other policies beloved by the MAGA base, yet still win Hispanics largely on an economic message. Liberals also seemed to ignore the fact that many agents for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection were themselves Latino. The shift along the border, not just in South Texas, seemed to embody Latinos angry about the influx of migrants.
Instead of waiting to see if this was too good to be true, the GOP tried to lock in its majorities with redrawn congressional districts, particularly in Hispanic areas like the valley. Rather than try appealing to Latinos, Republicans killed their chances to keep them in the fold.
In other words, the GOP likely got greedy. It had hoped to gerrymander Henry Cuellar, the conservative Democrat who represents Laredo, into a redder district. Soon after, Politico reported, Cuellar told Speaker of the House Mike Johnson that he did 1 whole percentage point better in the new version of his district. With weeks to go, Republicans pulled $3 million in ad reservations for the race. In the end, the incumbent won almost two-thirds of the vote.
This type of outcome didn’t just happen in Cuellar’s race. Republicans redrew Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s 15th District to one that Trump carried by 18 points. But she lost decisively to Tejano singer Bobby Pulido. In the new 34th District, which Trump won by 10 points in 2024, Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez easily defeated his GOP foe — by 15 points. And in the 35th District, Johnny Garcia defeated Rep. Carlos De La Cruz by roughly 10 points.
“I think people right now are very disappointed with this administration, there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse, because people are still seeing what it really means,” Pulido told me in the spring, with regard to Hispanics voting for Trump and his mass deportation regime. Trump not only went after their families, Pulido told me at the time; Trump’s policies made it impossible for businesses along the border to field a workforce.
Their defection to Trump and their subsequent votes against Trump show that many Hispanic voters are the ultimate swing voters.
Beyond Texas, where most Latino voters are Mexican Americans, Hispanics of many other backgrounds revolted. In Pennsylvania’s 7th District, which has a considerable Puerto Rican population, Democrat Bob Brooks defeated freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Even in Miami-Dade County, home to the more conservative Cuban diaspora that fled Fidel Castro’s regime, Republican Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Mario Díaz-Balart are barely holding on to their seats.
But Democrats should be careful not to become as comfortable with Hispanic voters as they once were. Their defection to Trump and their subsequent votes against Trump show that many Hispanic voters are the ultimate swing voters.
Democrats and Republicans will need to realize that the median swing voter does not always equal a suburban white soccer mom in Wisconsin — it may be a construction worker in Laredo upset about the increase in gas prices, or a Puerto Rican mother in Orlando who is trying to save enough to send her kids to college. Their votes are not guaranteed and must be regularly courted. The candidates who pretend otherwise will have more disappointing nights in their future.
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