This is the May 1, 2026, edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered straight to your inbox every Monday through Friday.

As Nazi divisions blitzed across France, Winston Churchill warned Britain of difficult times ahead, telling Parliament he had “nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat.” 

Franklin Roosevelt also warned Americans in the early days of World War II that things would get worse before they got better. 

Americans deserve the same kind of straight talk today. Gas prices are going up, health care costs are unaffordable, and the rent is too damn high.

Americans need leaders who will tell it like it is. Unfortunately, Republicans are choosing instead to lie to workers.

Jonathan Lemire writes in the Atlantic that a lasting peace will not come any time soon. Projections range from two to nine months. 

Like these experts, I could predict that the war will be over in two months, 14 days, and two hours from now. But no one knows. We are looking through a glass darkly, and only time will tell whether Iran’s terror regime will survive the next week or last another 47 years.  

Jon points out that none of the administration’s goals have been met. An emboldened terror regime remains in power, Iran’s nuclear program is still alive, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. 

Iran has greater control over the strait than ever before. 

Richard Haass, a former senior official at the State Department, tells Jonathan: “Even if Iran does not have explicit control, there is now always an implicit measure of control.” They’ve shut the strait once. Now they know they can do it again.

Jonathan’s piece opens with a detail that says it all: 

President Trump, celebrating Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial shipping, posted on Truth Social on April 17, “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.” The opening didn’t last. But, in his haste, Trump had inadvertently spelled out possibly the most consequential result of his eight-week war: The Strait of Hormuz now looks, in practice, like the “STRAIT OF IRAN.”

Is a nuke-free Iran worth months of pain at the pump for working Americans?

Our Gulf allies would say yes. 

Foreign policy experts would also say yes. 

But what about working Americans? For Republicans, that’s the rub. 

They can try to pressure the president to cut and run, but a speedy retreat would only make Iran stronger in every way. The Revolutionary Guard would own the strait, keep their nukes, and declare victory over their Great Satan—the U.S.A. 

That result would be catastrophic for America and our allies. That’s why Donald Trump’s options are so limited, and for now appear to be a blockade, continued fighting, or a conditional surrender.

They’re all bad options but a continued blockade may hurt Iranians enough to finally bring them to the table to negotiate in good faith. 

Regardless, Donald Trump and the Republican Party need to start telling Americans the truth. They can handle it, and as with Churchill and FDR, being upfront with voters may get them more invested in this war that should have never been launched.

ON THE CALENDAR

May is here and my struggling Red Sox are home at Fenway this weekend at the old ballpark. Here’s what else is going on.

Today is May Day, and labor unions and community groups across the country are mobilizing for May Day Strong events — calling for work and school closures and an economic blackout. See if your hometown is participating.

In the nation’s capital, a major race is underway — and no, it’s not political. The 14th annual Running of the Chihuahuas brings the country’s shortest legs and waggiest tails to Washington for dog costume contests, an adoptable pet parade, and the kind of unbridled joy this city could use right now.

Just outside Hendersonville, North Carolina, a four-day celebration of local cider, wine, and farm-to-table cuisine kicks off this weekend in the Blue Ridge Mountains. It’s “gratitude at altitude,” and the first weekend of North Carolina’s Wine Month is as good a reason as any to head for the hills.

In Atlanta on Saturday, Bruce Springsteen, Tom Morello, and the E Street Band bring their Land of Hope and Dreams American Tour to State Farm Arena. The Boss is calling it a tour in defense of American democracy. Plan for four hours.

Down in Miami, it’s engines on all weekend for the Miami Grand Prix, where Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and the rest of the F1 field go head-to-head on one of the circuit’s most electric stops.

Out west, Jazz at LACMA kicks off its summer season this weekend — free, outdoors, and one of the best things Los Angeles does. Check out the lineup.

And at a theater near you starting today: Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci are all back for “The Devil Wears Prada 2.” A sequel 20 years in the making. “That’s all.” 

My dad would announce annually, “The first Saturday in May. Derby day!” The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place tomorrow afternoon in Louisville. Renegade has opened as the 4-1 favorite, and every entry at Churchill Downs will again be chasing the ghost of Secretariat— the legend who set the Derby record 53 years ago. 

Now, let’s get to your questions.

MAILBAG

Thank you again to all our readers who wrote in this week. As always, you’re welcome to write to us any time.

How will the UAE’s pulling out of OPEC affect us here in the USA?

— Chrisbeth M., Bluffton, S.C.

As Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski might have said, the war with Iran has scrambled the grand chessboard in both positive and negative ways.

There are the Rumsfeldian “unknown unknowns” that come with any war, and there may also be a few positive outcomes that accentuate America’s energy independence. 

It makes no sense that a foreign government’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz should affect gas prices so dramatically across America. The United States continues to move towards energy independence and rarely relies on oil shipped through the strait.

Since oil is an international commodity, it’s hard to decouple prices in America from markets across the planet. But having the United Arab Emirates break away from OPEC should benefit Americans in the future. The Emiratis’ stated goal of being a reliable and steady energy partner with the United States could be a great strategic advantage. 

With America’s growing energy independence and the UAE‘s break from OPEC, U.S. leaders should begin strategizing on how to best make energy moving through the Strait of Hormuz less relevant than ever. 

What’s next after the ballroom? Do we have to build him a collection of indoor, 18-hole golf courses, too?

— James M., Birmingham, Mich.

We spoke on the show earlier today about how unpopular the ballroom and Trump’s grand arch are to American voters.

This obsession with a Marie Antoinette-style ballroom is a political nightmare for Republican candidates running in 2026. While working Americans keep struggling with higher gas prices, higher healthcare costs, and higher housing prices, Republicans are becoming more obsessed by the day with building the president’s grand ballroom.

It has nothing to do with national security. A federal judge has already ruled that the continued construction of the president’s bunker on that site is legal.

But Lindsay Graham and other Republicans stumbling over themselves to force American taxpayers to fund Donald Trump’s latest vanity project shows just how out of touch Ronald Reagan’s old party has become. 

Joe, I loved what you said about comedy in the Catskills. I spent a lot of time there. The comedians were brutal, even towards the audience. Would Lenny Bruce survive in today’s political climate?

— Barry M., New York City

That’s hard to say. I watch old routines by comedians likeDon Rickles, Richard Pryor, and others, and ask the same question as you. 

Norman Lear’s groundbreaking comedy “All in the Family” would never get the approval of politically correct network executives these days. Even some jokes fromTina Fey’s bitingly hilarious “30 Rock” would face frenzied protests because of today’s precious standards. 

While many editors, network execs, and curators have become less paranoid since “peak woke” began to subside, there is still too much self-censoring.

That the Federal Communications Commission would threaten to pull ABC‘s broadcast license because of a Jimmy Kimmel joke (that would have fit comfortably in a 1960s Catskills comedy routine) shows just how hypocritical MAGA free speech “absolutists” have become. 

The only thing absolute about their view regarding free speech is how they want absolute control over what comes out of their political opponents’ mouths.

Good morning to my favourite U.S. morning news crew. Joe, you were a little hard on my Jays the other morning. I think we should have earned a little more respect with our performance against Boston. Do you feel that the Jays deserved to be in the World Series last year? Keep up the good work. Jimmy, a

— Jimmy M., Burlington, Ontario

Jimmy, the Toronto Blue Jays may have had a tough game against Boston on Monday, but the franchise has forever earned my respect for the remarkable performance they put in last year. I agree with Red Sox play-by-play announcer Dave O’Brien that the three greatest World Series in our lifetime may have been when the Reds beat the Red Sox in 1975, when the Twins squeaked past the Braves in 1991, and last year when the bad guys beat the Blue Jays in a remarkable 7-game series.

Here’s hoping the Blue Jays and the Red Sox have a great pennant race deep into September!

ONE MORE SHOT

People fly colorful kites at the 46th International Kite Festival on May 1, 2026, in Cervia, Italy. The Artevento Cervia International Kite Festival, featuring wind artists and kite flyers from 50 countries, is the longest-running international kite festival in the world, according to organizers. 

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