The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics fell far short of expectations: just 29,000 jobs created in September. Though not many people are losing their jobs, it is a bad time to be looking for one (just ask any graduating senior). And critically, wage growth was again lower than inflation, meaning that on average, Americans continue to fall behind on affording the necessities of life.
To look at President Donald Trump’s poll ratings, one would think we’re in the middle of an outright depression, not just a mediocre economy that isn’t providing the kind of security and opportunity people want. That may be explained by a yawning gap between what Trump promised and what he has delivered — especially for those people, including young men, who put the greatest hope in him to improve their lives.
It was clearly a mistake for Trump to say on the campaign trail in 2024, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One.” But that’s not all he hasn’t been able to deliver.
Begin with the big picture, which could hardly be worse for Trump. His average approval on the economy is in the low 30s. On inflation — or “the cost of living” in some surveys — it’s even worse. Last week’s AP/NORC poll showed his approval on the cost of living at just 17%, the same number as in the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. Perhaps most shocking of all, in both polls, most Republicans said they disapprove of the president’s handling of the issue.
It was clearly a mistake for Trump to say on the campaign trail in 2024, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One.” But that’s not all he hasn’t been able to deliver. Ever since he ran in 2016, he has offered a vision of a return to an America of the past, one in which manufacturing was the driver of the economy and the people who today feel they have been left behind — especially men, and especially men in rural areas — could rely on well-paid, secure jobs that offered not just a good living but also a sense of accomplishment and status.
Delivering on that vision was probably never possible. There is no lever marked “bring down prices” for a president to pull, for instance. But he has made life worse for the people who counted on him the most.
A decade ago, Trump claimed to champion people who had seen factories close and their communities go into decline. He offered voters someone to blame — immigrants, foreign countries, condescending liberal elites — and said he’d bring all the lost jobs back. But it didn’t happen. Go to those places in rural and Rust Belt areas today and there are jobs to be had — but they’re likely to have low wages, few benefits and no union representation.
There has been no factory boom. In fact, there are fewer manufacturing jobs now than there were when Trump took office.
Then came his second term, in which he has waged erratic trade wars and spiked gas prices thanks to his disastrous war in Iran. Both have been crippling to voters’ bank accounts and to Republicans’ hopes of holding the House and the Senate.
Rural parts of the country, where Trump has found many of his most ardent supporters, have been hit especially hard by the energy crisis, because residents have to travel longer distances and many of them drive pickups (the top 10 states in share of pickup ownership are all deep-red states). A Ford F-150, America’s best-selling vehicle for decades, gets about 20 miles to the gallon, with some models getting as little as 12 miles per gallon. Filling up its 36-gallon tank at today’s prices will cost more than $150.
If you were driving to one of the great manufacturing jobs that Trump claims he has created, you might be willing to absorb that cost. But there has been no factory boom. In fact, there are fewer manufacturing jobs now than there were when Trump took office.
There is one part of the economy that is booming, but it doesn’t involve manly men pounding raw materials into finished products. Economist Justin Wolfers points out one of the most revealing statistics about the American economy today: Since Trump took office, healthcare and social services have accounted for more than 100% of the country’s job growth. Those sectors have added just under a million jobs since January 2025, while the rest of the economy has actually lost more than 220,000 jobs.
The explosion in healthcare jobs predates the president: There are three million more Americans working in healthcare today than there were just 10 years ago. Reporting for my last book, I met some young men in West Virginia who decided there was no future in coal mining, so they went into nursing instead. It’s a high-skill, demanding profession in which work is always available — and can’t easily be automated away by a machine or artificial intelligence.
But it’s not the kind of profession Trump will encourage men to go into.
If Trump had chosen to, he could have used his influence with young men to convince them that the economy of tomorrow isn’t going to be about upper-body strength. Instead, he told them that the past could be recaptured. With the help of a thousand right-wing podcasters and social media influencers, his administration has worked to promote a vision of manhood based on bullying, violence and anxiety. Just look at the comically insecure secretary of defense, who throws insults at every vulnerable group and is obsessed with testosterone levels.
Even so, when you ask young men what’s necessary to be a man, the top answer will usually be providing for their families. They don’t want to be isolated and atomized, desperately injecting themselves with supplements but unable to find a good job. With the election just a month away, they know Trump hasn’t delivered what he promised — and like other voters, they may have run out of patience.
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