SYRACUSE, N.Y. — After a string of rallies in deep-red states, President Donald Trump heads to this Democratic-leaning city in upstate New York on Friday, where Republicans are counting on him to turn out their voters — and hoping he does not do the same for Democrats.
The evening rally at the Oncenter downtown will feature Bruce Blakeman, the Republican candidate for governor, and Kailee Buller, the GOP candidate for New York’s 22nd Congressional District.
Asked on Fox News earlier this week how the president’s visit could help his campaign, Blakeman was frank about the calculus. “Well, listen, we need those Trump voters to get out,” he said. “They came out in really big numbers two years ago. And President Trump had a very, very good race here in New York State. So we’ve got to get those voters out.”
Blakeman has catching up to do. A Marist poll released this week shows New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking re-election, leading him by 11 points — though she is losing ground among independents.
The 22nd District, which includes Syracuse and Onondaga County, leans Democratic, according to forecasters. Democrats flipped the district in 2024. Republicans are defending a slim House majority and are working to win the seat back in November.
Kevin Ryan, chair of the Syracuse City Republican Committee, told MS NOW that he thinks there is “absolutely” a chance Buller can win. But Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said that while a Republican could win the district again, “they would have to be very moderate.”
“They would have to be able to effectively make the case that the Democrat incumbent, or if it were an open seat, the Democratic challenger was just too far to the left,” Reeher said. “It’s not a terribly liberal district. The political tradition here that goes back decades is one of more moderation.”
Like Republicans in other tight races across the country, Buller has started to put some distance between herself and Trump. At a recent debate with Rep. John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent, Buller signaled that she opposes a drawn-out war with Iran. She acknowledged that Americans are struggling to afford high gas prices and said she is not a “rubber stamp for the president.” She said she supports immigration enforcement but added that Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have made “tragic” mistakes.
Trump will also use the Syracuse stop to boost Republicans in other races across the state, some of whom trail their Democratic opponents.
In the neighboring 21st District, Republican Anthony Constantino leads Democrat Blake Gendebien. Last month, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” — the first time since 2018 it has rated the seat as anything less than solidly Republican. Farther south, in the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, a recent Emerson College poll showed Rep. Mike Lawler trailing Democrat Cait Conley by two points.
Reeher calls the president’s visit a “double-edged sword,” but one where Republicans are “banking on getting the better side of the knife.” Elections like this one tend to turn more on turnout than persuasion, he said, so Trump is trying to generate enthusiasm among Republicans and his MAGA base.
“He’s coming up here to get hopefully more of his people excited than the Democrats, who he will also excite, to come out and vote the other way,” Reeher said.
Ryan said the rally’s location makes it easy to reach people across the state, from Albany to Buffalo. “Syracuse is the geographic center of the state,” he said. “All can meet in the middle to come out and see the president and hear what he has to say.”
Local grassroots advocacy groups are planning protests just blocks from the Oncenter. “Don’t come here with the hate,” said Tom Keck, an organizer with Indivisible Onondaga County. “Don’t come here with the undermining of democracy and the attacks on voting rights. Don’t come here with the attacks on trans people and immigrants.”
Ryan, the local Republican party chair, defended the president’s record. “For those who say that the president has done some things that are unpopular, I think you need to look at the overall record,” he said. “I think that this administration is delivering exactly what the American people voted for in 2024. He has secured our borders. He has brought fair trade back to this country. Our economy is better off.”
“Yeah, there is the war with Iran,” Ryan added. “But let’s not forget that every president since Jimmy Carter has promised to do something about Iran and the threat that it poses to the world. Donald Trump’s the first one to actually do something about it.”
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